When Forecasts Drift from the Bank

Drift often begins with optimistic collection curves that never get recalibrated after a slow quarter. The forecast still “looks fine” while the bank tells a quieter story.

A simple weekly comparison of forecast cash categories to actual clearing reduces surprise. You do not need a new system—only consistent category names between the forecast model and the bank feed summaries.

When categories disagree, treat that as a finding. Misaligned labels create phantom variance that no one can remediate because the numbers never described the same thing.

In our Comberford engagements, the fastest improvements come from renaming and remapping—not from adding more forecast detail.